![]() ![]() ![]() Exports of military goods – which include armaments, as well as ammunition and technical and non-lethal equipment – were also low. According to SIPRI’s arms transfer database, not a single country transferred major armaments prior to 2018. Over the 2014–2021 period, arms transfers to Ukraine were very limited. Between 2015 and January 2022, the US-led JMTG-U trained more than 27,000 Ukrainian personnel, Canada’s Operation Unifier 33,346 personnel, and the UK’s Operation Orbital over 22,000 personnel. Poland and Lithuania made substantial contributions to these training efforts, mainly through the JMTG-U, as well as bilaterally. The main allied efforts were the US-led Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine ( JMTG-U), Canada’s Operation Unifier, and the UK’s Operation Orbital, all launched in 2015. ![]() ![]() The first wave of shipments to Ukraine, between July 2014 and March 2015, was limited to humanitarian aid and non-lethal military goods such as helmets and body armour.įrom March 2015, with conflict intensity having fallen markedly, allies focused on longer-term non-lethal assistance, most notably training for the Ukrainian armed forces. These interrelated notions provided the backdrop for the provision of only non-lethal assistance. Relatedly, the notion that there was ‘no military solution’ had already been used by President Barack Obama on 26 March 2014, before becoming Chancellor Angela Merkel’s signature statement about Ukraine. This same notion was used to argue against arming Ukraine. Regardless of what Ukraine did, Russia could always pour in additional capabilities and prevail. The Battle of Ilovaisk in September 2014 and the Battle of Debaltseve in January–February 2015 appeared to validate the notion of ‘escalation dominance’. As the Donbas War unfolded in 2014, the correlation of forces seemed clear to all. ![]()
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